Rep Cohen

timdog · Member

Rep Cohen

NEPhillyDem · Member

timdog wrote:

This was posted by Mark Cohen on politicsphilly.com: Maybe Rep Cohen should count his blessings that he is still in office, every Philly Republican in the House has more drag than Cohen. Mark, your friend Brendan didn't get elected and lets face it, if you were in a District like kenney's you would have lost to any upstart. Nevertheless, I don't know if that is a good thing, this city is becoming more Democratic by default not because of ideologies. 2001 Maps Submitted by Rep. Mark B. Cohen (not verified) on Sun, 2005-06-19 00:24. Much later information is available now--up to the 2005 primary--but the general pattern is still the same. The Republican registration has falled to about 16.4%, and Democrats have made corresponding gains. How low can the Republicans fall in Philadelphia? My guess is that it has not yet bottomed out, and that it will continue to fall in the direction of 10% of the city total. Ultimately, all the state legislative seats and the Brian O'Neill City Council seat will be held by Democrats. » reply

I for one would like to think Mark Cohen is right, and he is somewhat, but the Dems can't get EVERY seat. That is due to horrific gerrymandering. Could anyone honestly see Perzel's seat flip? I could only given a Club for Growth challenger that topples him, but that's generally a GOP seat. I think Brendan has a very good shot at George Kenney and may win and John Taylor's seat will flip upon his retirement.

philly · Member

Representative Cohen is a bumbling idiot. His district is drawn in an awful manner. Starting down in Olney and winding its way up into the Northeast. There is no one ward that he has a majority in and that is what he counts on to keep him elected. I can gaurantee that he will have an opponent in 2006.

It is pretty bad when on election day , he walks into my polling lace and the dems ask "who is that?" Great job Mark.

DMK169 · Newbie

what about Rep. O'Brien's seat?

Wparker · Newbie

The club is very interested in the southeast. WJP

NEPhillyDem · Member

Please! If the Club somehow unseats Perzel, you could count on a Casey-like Dem to flip that seat quite easily. Is Mayfair honestly Club for Growth territory? Fox Chase maybe has sections, but overall dream on! I urge the Club for Growth to spend their money on unseating Perzel then lose to a Dem in the general if they somehow get there.

Wparker · Newbie

Who said anything about Perzel? WJP

NEPhillyDem · Member

Wparker wrote:

Who said anything about Perzel? WJP

I know you guys were targeting him. Who else is the Club targeting in 2006?

Wparker · Newbie

CHA-CHING!

PhillyDemocrat · Member

William Parker,

You have no shot of beating Denny O'Brien. The Democratic Party has not even fielded a candidate against him the past several outings.

NEPhillyDem · Member

If a Clubber knocks O'Brien off in a primary, which is doubtful, I can see a Dem winning that seat pretty easily but bear in mind you likely need a Casey-like Dem to do so.

Wparker · Newbie

Who said anything about Denny? It may be you?

PhillyDemocrat · Member

William Parker,

Your group would be best suited to target the T. If you want to target a Democrat from Philly, go ahead. I'd rather have your organization waste money here than spend it somewhere you can make a difference.

machine gop · Newbie

Anyone who thinks that Perzel will get voted out has no idea what they are talking about.

NEPhillyDem · Member

machine gop wrote:

Anyone who thinks that Perzel will get voted out has no idea what they are talking about.

I can see some possibilities.

This definitely has to happen:

1. He loses Speakership, which is possible. Won't have access to oodles of cash he once did.

Along with one or two of the following. All 3 if he still has Speakership:

2. Strong national GOP backlash, which as of right now is looking very possible.

3. Perzel takes drastic right turn on labor/economic issues

4. A Bob Casey-Mike McGeehan like Dem is the nominee

PhillyDemocrat · Member

I hope we're aggressive and try to knock off the R's in our midst. We could have done it in 2000 and been done with Perzel and the lot. Realistically, beating Perzel would be super tough. NEPhillyDem is right, you'd definitely need a more socially moderate/conservative Dem, not a Communist supported candidate this time. I truly hope we as a party we don't give up on beating Perzel.

What do people think of O'Brien, Taylor and Kenney.

NEPhillyDem · Member

PhillyDemocrat wrote:

I hope we're aggressive and try to knock off the R's in our midst. We could have done it in 2000 and been done with Perzel and the lot. Realistically, beating Perzel would be super tough. NEPhillyDem is right, you'd definitely need a more socially moderate/conservative Dem, not a Communist supported candidate this time. I truly hope we as a party we don't give up on beating Perzel. What do people think of O'Brien, Taylor and Kenney.

I think our only shot in 2006 is Kenney largely because of Brendan Boyle. Taylor and O'Brien are too well liked in their respective districts to be knocked off. While I am a strongly pro-choice Democrat, I feel I have to bite the bullet and support an anti-abortion Dem to beat Perzel. The fact that both Fox Chase and Mayfair are in the district means we definitely need a socially moderate-conservative Dem. Other districts though I think we can get away with a more liberal Dem once they retire especially Taylor's district due to eventual yuppie gentrification.

machine gop · Newbie

yea good luck with that I guess the Dems live in a fantasy world... must be nice

PhillyDemocrat · Member

Perzel is yet to be truly challenged since redistricting. In 02 he ran against no real opposition and in November he ran against a Communist supported candidate (even with that received Perzel did not receive more than three quarters of the vote). This does not mean I would deny Perzel is a very tough guy to beat.

If Perzel leaves office in 2010 to run for governor this is a toss-up district. Dido for O'Brien's district but Taylor's will definitely go back in the D column.

NEPhillyDem · Member

PhillyDemocrat wrote:

Perzel is yet to be truly challenged since redistricting. In 02 he ran against no real opposition and in November he ran against a Communist supported candidate (even with that received Perzel did not receive more than three quarters of the vote). This does not mean I would deny Perzel is a very tough guy to beat. If Perzel leaves office in 2010 to run for governor this is a toss-up district. Dido for O'Brien's district but Taylor's will definitely go back in the D column.

I agree with this and we are not in a fantasy world, in fact you guys (the GOP) are. You got your seats during the Reagan era and these guys have parked themselves there since. Of course it will be difficult to beat 20+ year incumbents. The Perzel gerrymander of the 172nd will be difficult even in an open seat, but I think Taylor's will definitely flip but with credible GOP opposition and O'Brien's will be a Dem-leaning tossup.