You are dreaming my friend. Nobody is going to win that election in a blowout. If either wins by more than 4 points I will be surprised.
Specter does not have the clout or power to turn the unions onto Santorum because Santorum is the most anti-labor Senator this state has ever seen.
Do you have any idea how close Fumo and Casey are? Obviously not since you think he will help Santorum.
Casey has a tremendous amount of appeal outside of SE and Allegheny county.
This is anything but an "anybody-but" strategy. Casey is a strong candidate with trememndous name recognition, accomplishments, a built in base, and a proven track record of winning statewide.
If the voters hate him so much - why did he rack up the most statewide votes in history last year when he was running in a low interest race?
Think before you speak my friend. Your post just goes to show how completely ignorrant you are to fact and to realism.
Polls already show just how much the people of this state dislike Santorum. Pennsylvanians don't love radicals, whether they're on the left or the right. And they have correctly pegged Ricky as a far-right kook.
His showboating on the Shaivo case was a disaster. And his attempt to bill his kids' education here while they were living in Virginia won't help much, either.
All Casey needs to do is stand up straight and not drool and he will win with ease. No matter how much mud the GOP attempts to throw.
(And don't expect much help from the senior Senator. Even if his health permits, I don't believe there's much love lost between those two...)
quote: Originally posted by: Montco Dem " Polls already show just how much the people of this state dislike Santorum. Pennsylvanians don't love radicals, whether they're on the left or the right. And they have correctly pegged Ricky as a far-right kook. His showboating on the Shaivo case was a disaster. And his attempt to bill his kids' education here while they were living in Virginia won't help much, either. All Casey needs to do is stand up straight and not drool and he will win with ease. No matter how much mud the GOP attempts to throw. (And don't expect much help from the senior Senator. Even if his health permits, I don't believe there's much love lost between those two...) MD"
You are completely off base about Specter. Santorum pulled out all of the stops to see that Specter won the primary last year. Specter managed to carry a surprising number of rural counties with Santorum's help. The only thing that would stop Specter from helping Santorum is his health.
specter is going to look like a total dumbass if he stands up and supports santorum after their most recent disagreements. i think specter would just love to cut rick loose, party lines be damned. but maybe i'm wrong.
delco reaganite - 12 point disparity between casey and santorum? when klink managed 46%, you know casey will do better. and PA voters don't hate casey. they continue to vote him into every office he runs for (except for governor)
quote: Originally posted by: Doctor Octopus "specter is going to look like a total dumbass if he stands up and supports santorum after their most recent disagreements. i think specter would just love to cut rick loose, party lines be damned. but maybe i'm wrong. delco reaganite - 12 point disparity between casey and santorum? when klink managed 46%, you know casey will do better. and PA voters don't hate casey. they continue to vote him into every office he runs for (except for governor)"
Klink will have one advantage that Casey won't have. There weren't any negative ads running against him. Santorum pretty much ignored him. You can bet that Casey will be hit with plently of negative ads.
But Santorum says a lot of stupid things, with regard to, oh, say, homosexuals or women's rights to birth control. Of course NARAL won't have a candidate to back after the primary next spring (unless Chuck can really get his **** together,) but groups like Moveon.org will move in on Santorum like those wolves from Bush's ad from last October.
They're both gonna get bloody, but I think Santorum will bear the brunt of it and lose to Casey in the end.
I really don't think negative ads have the same effects they once did 20 years ago. I mean you can find where someone really stands on the issues by looking online or in a newspaper. Most people I know ignore them.
As much as I'd like to see Santorum lose, I just don't think Casey has what it takes to win this. As much as I detest Santorum, I give him credit for his campaign skills.
Casey on the other hand seems to be lacking in them, notwithstanding his recent election. He barely squeaked through in the '96 Auditor General Democratic primary, and certainly underperformed against Rendell 3 yrs ago.
I also wouldn't be surprised if an independent bid from a Progressive/Far left candidacy developed in the general election given Casey abortion views.
quote: Originally posted by: NEPhillyDem "I really don't think negative ads have the same effects they once did 20 years ago. I mean you can find where someone really stands on the issues by looking online or in a newspaper. Most people I know ignore them."
The average voter doesn't take the time to research the candidates. They learn about the candidates accidentialy.
quote: Originally posted by: PhillyGayRepublican "As much as I'd like to see Santorum lose, I just don't think Casey has what it takes to win this. As much as I detest Santorum, I give him credit for his campaign skills. Casey on the other hand seems to be lacking in them, notwithstanding his recent election. He barely squeaked through in the '96 Auditor General Democratic primary, and certainly underperformed against Rendell 3 yrs ago. I also wouldn't be surprised if an independent bid from a Progressive/Far left candidacy developed in the general election given Casey abortion views."
One of the reasons Casey wins by such large margins is that Republicans are usually afraid to run against him. Only sacraficial lambs like Bob Nyce, Katie True, and Craig Pepper will run. He lost to a strong Democrat in the 2002 primary, and now we will see how he does against a strong Republican.
There's no denying Santorum's campaigning skills, but you can't deny that his close ties to Bush have lost him popularity here in our little Blue state. TJ Rooney will take anything he can get on Rick and make it well known. Tax records, fundraisers, ancient quotes...anything will go in 2006, and Bob Casey's record may be a bit blank, but at least there aren't gaping holes like there are in Santorum's.
Look at Santorum's campaign record! He was "vulnerable" in 2000 according to Terry Madonna. He upset a seven term incumbent for congress. This guy can campaign.
Also Bob Casey won't be facing the political juggernaut that is Jean Craige-Pepper. He will be facing Santorum who can raise more money than the Catholic Church. And let's look at Casey's record against viable candidates 0 for 1. Try in four years when Specter quits.
Are you sure about Gerlach and Fitzy not being reelected? Gerlach will win because from this early time, he knows he is vulnerable so he has been campaigning since November. Lois is running again and if she could not win then, she wont win now. By the way, Gerlach won by about the same amount of votes that Hoeffel beat Brown by in 02 and the Dems were calling the 02 race in 13 a big win for Hoeffel. As for Fitzy, I will not even dignify that one with a reply other than he jumped in very late in the campaign and still blew Ginny out of the water by 40,000 votes.
Santorum's race is going to be close no matter who you think is going to win. I have to give the edge to Santorum and I base that on the presidential numbers. Bush closed the gap a bit on Kerry from 2000 to 04. People voted for Gore, then reached back to the right, past Bush, and voted for Santorum. The PA R's have gotten themselves mobilized and a lot of the first time voters/volunteers from 04 are coming back for the muni's this year, from what I've seen. Casey isn't Ron Klink, of course, so this race is definitely up for grabs.
Everyone in the state knows Fitz is vulnerable, including himself and Harry Fawkes. The thing I just keep coming back to is the complete lack of viable Bucks Co. Dems.
State Senators: 0
State Reps: 2
County Commish's: 1
Melio and Corrigan wouldn't run, Sandy Miller wouldn't win, so what choices are they left with? Some CEO or otherwise incredibly wealthy political novice, or move in someone to run against the local boy done good? Dems just don't have the bench in Bucks.
quote: Originally posted by: blitzen "Santorum's race is going to be close no matter who you think is going to win. I have to give the edge to Santorum and I base that on the presidential numbers. Bush closed the gap a bit on Kerry from 2000 to 04. People voted for Gore, then reached back to the right, past Bush, and voted for Santorum. The PA R's have gotten themselves mobilized and a lot of the first time voters/volunteers from 04 are coming back for the muni's this year, from what I've seen. Casey isn't Ron Klink, of course, so this race is definitely up for grabs. Everyone in the state knows Fitz is vulnerable, including himself and Harry Fawkes. The thing I just keep coming back to is the complete lack of viable Bucks Co. Dems. State Senators: 0 State Reps: 2 County Commish's: 1 Melio and Corrigan wouldn't run, Sandy Miller wouldn't win, so what choices are they left with? Some CEO or otherwise incredibly wealthy political novice, or move in someone to run against the local boy done good? Dems just don't have the bench in Bucks."
Thing is I won't deny the fact that Bucks has virtually NO Democratic organization there. Then again, they were once represented by a Dem named Peter Kostmayer in Congress prior to Jim Greenwood though and IIRC, he was a homosexual. Bucks County is very fertile ground for a Democratic organization considering it voted for Kerry and is overwhelmingly pro-choice. I know the Dems are starting to get organized there, but they still have some catching up to do relative to Montgomery County, North Jersey, or Long Island which were once very Republican and always socially liberal. I think Bucks will eventually become a Democratic county, but it may take about 10-15 years. Montgomery is almost there.
quote: Originally posted by: Doctor Octopus "Oh, it'll be a nasty fight alright. But Santorum says a lot of stupid things, with regard to, oh, say, homosexuals or women's rights to birth control. Of course NARAL won't have a candidate to back after the primary next spring (unless Chuck can really get his **** together,) but groups like Moveon.org will move in on Santorum like those wolves from Bush's ad from last October. They're both gonna get bloody, but I think Santorum will bear the brunt of it and lose to Casey in the end."
Santorum would love for for MoveOn.org to run ads about his stance on gay rights. Some people forget that PA is a pretty conservative state, and that Santorum's job approval ratings actually increased when he made the 'manon dog' comment.
Well they'll blast him on the birth control issue then. It carries so well with women, it'll be impossible for Rick to win when everyone knows what an anti-birth control kook he is.
I just pray Morril and the greens have enough sence to realize this is one race they cant afford to mess around with. Run someone, fine, but dont campaign. at all. If casey looses by a point, and they get 5%, they will feel like the worlds biggest morons.
quote: Originally posted by: UvilleDemChair "I just pray Morril and the greens have enough sence to realize this is one race they cant afford to mess around with. Run someone, fine, but dont campaign. at all. If casey looses by a point, and they get 5%, they will feel like the worlds biggest morons."
That would certainly be a dream scenario for Republicans. I wonder if hard-core pro-choicers will defect in such large numbers. The pro-lifers did it 1994, when independent Peg Luksik got a whopping 13% of the vote against two pro-choice major-party candidates. I doubt that a Green would do that well, but perhapst the GOP will give the Greens a helping hand.
Look at Santorum's campaign record! He was "vulnerable" in 2000 according to Terry Madonna. He upset a seven term incumbent for congress. This guy can campaign.
