Conti from Bucks should be the most vulnerable given the fact that he usually votes like a Democrat and just voted for the payraise. He was only 1 of 3 Bucks legislators to vote for it. Then he had the gall to say if he didn't vote for it he would lose the ability to bring back pork to his district AND that he really did not think the raise was appropriate nor did he need it. But then he IS taking the unvouchured expenses ALREADY!!! Top that off with the fact that he recently received an F- grade from the Commonwealth Foundation and he could be VERY vulnerable in a Republican primary. The only question is who would have the balls to go against him knowing Fawkes' disapproval of Rep primaries.
Add any incumbent that was elected in a special election, especially Beyer and Sipthro. Beyer didn't run a great race and won b/c the dems couldn't get it together (again). Sipthro took the pay raise from all accounts I have heard and while he did run a great race, the make up of the district is going to be difficult for any democrat to maintain.
I would also add EZ Taylor in West Chester (only won by 6% last time and then voted for pay raise, ghost voting and is running against the candidate who almost beat her last time), Habay out in the Western part of the state (criminal charges will do that to a candidate), Boscola (b/c she continues to baffle Dems and b/c a GOP candidate with strong base could beat her). I always add freshman representatives so I say that Gerber and Shapiro are vulnerable (Gerber more than Shaperio I supposed). I would add Jackie Crahala b/c her last race was so close, but I think she has learned the value of good constituent services as a result of that race.
If the right opponents could be found, I would say that anybody who voted for the ghost voting and for the pay raise would be extremely vulnerable. An agressive opponent to any of those incumbents could really hit hard at them. Unfortunately not many of them will draw even token opposition.
But yeah, Conti is vulnerable. Perhaps the most vulnerable of them all, but the challenge will have to come from a party outsider on the right.
"But yeah, Conti is vulnerable. Perhaps the most vulnerable of them all, but the challenge will have to come from a party outsider on the right."
Or a party insider that has support among committee people within one of the larger Rep townships in that district. Someone who could get Fitzpatrick to remain neutral. That is what it would take. A guy like Joe Montone is not going to knock off Conti, nor will someone who just runs a a pro-life far right candidate (which is what Montone was against Greenwood).
It would have to be someone willing to take a chance that could raise some bucks by getting the support of the PA Club for Growth, The Commonwealth Foundation, the YCOP, etc...
The person would need to draw on party support but not have to worry about being punished for taking a challenge in the event that he/she is not successful. The mere prospect of punishment will likely keep a credible candidate away. A grassroots activist who has little regard for party politics but a lot of conviction in the values of the conservative movement could really do it. Club for Growth support would be the best asset as it brings money (YCOP doesn't bring much money--manpower yes, but not much money and the Commonwealth Foundation can't get into the election, although it can take big swipes at Conti's record).
Good luck on that one. Nobody is going to publicly acknowledge even considering a run until he/she has a base that can really take it to Conti.
In Lancaster County--both Armstrongs. Rep. Gib Armstrong is up for re-election next year and there is a fantastic candidate in the wings just waiting to announce. There are others interested too.
Sen. Gib Armstrong is not up for re-election until 08 but people are already lining up to take him down. People here have a VERY long memory.
